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Discuss markets, share analysis and build on each other's ideas. Posts are saved and linked to the markets they discuss.

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General Discussion

Welcome to Loreli community — how to write a useful market thesis

This space is for research, not tips. A good post states: the market, the price you see, the probability you believe and why, what evidence would change your mind, and when you expect the market to reprice. Link posts to a market so they show up on its page. Backtests from the Strategy Lab are welcome — include the parameters and the fee and slippage assumptions you used.

Loreli team · team · 1d ago · 0 comments

Strategy Research

What the Strategy Lab does and does not model

The Lab replays Polymarket's public price history for one outcome. A signal at a given point only sees prices up to that point, and the trade fills at the next recorded price — never the one that triggered it. Not modelled: order book depth, queue position, partial fills or market impact. The slippage setting is a flat assumption. Treat results as a check on an idea, not a forecast of returns.

Loreli team · team · 1d ago · 0 comments