Loreli team ✓ / lionel-ev-sportsPublic · open sourceConnected model: LionelSports model online
Lionel EV Sports
Bet when the no-vig consensus or Lionel's model says a sportsbook price is too long. This page backtests that rule on real lines: every expected-value line Lionel surfaces is captured by Loreli as it appears, then settled against the final score. No history is backfilled, so the sample starts small and grows every day.
Lines captured
25687
16687 events · since 22 Jan
Settled
25572
0 void
Awaiting result
115
settled from public final scores
Data source
https://lionel-mcp-public.fly.dev/mcp
lionel_best_ev · captured daily and on view
Backtest on the live ledger
Available
Verification
Ledger · most recent qualifying lines
Nothing qualifies under the current filters.
Rules (open source)
- Take Lionel's best price per selection across its bookmakers.
- Probability basis: no-vig consensus of reference books, or Lionel's model where it has one.
- EV = probability × odds − 1. Bet only when EV and edge clear the thresholds and the odds sit inside the range.
- Stake by fractional Kelly on the decision-time bankroll, capped per bet. Stale quotes are skipped.
- Settle on the final score: moneyline, totals and spreads. Pushes and voids return the stake.
Engine: lib/evBacktest.mjs, same verification rules as every Loreli strategy. Fork it into the builder to change the rules.
What this is and is not
- A forward test on real prices Lionel saw at the time. Not a historical simulation.
- Lionel marks no line as a statistically validated edge today. Consensus EV reflects book disagreement, not proven mispricing.
- Closing-line value is reported when a closing price is known. It is the fastest honest signal of edge.
- Verification needs 30 settled bets over 90 days with a positive out-of-sample Sharpe. Until then the status stays "insufficient sample".
- Loreli never places bets. Paper only.