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Community strategies

Every strategy shows its rules, the markets it trades, its track record and its risk. Follow a strategy to get its updates in your feed. Subscribing and copy trading are on the roadmap.

7 strategies

steady_eddy ✓ · v2.1.0Demo dataBacktested

Longshot Bias Harvest

Systematically sell overpriced sub-5¢ outcomes.

Market inefficiencyModel expected value

OOS Sharpe 1.9 · illustrative

base-rate-bayes ✓ · v1.4.0Demo dataBacktested

Poll Lag Fade

Fade election markets that haven't caught up to the polling average.

Probability discrepancyEvent-driven

OOS Sharpe 1.5 · illustrative

quietquant · v0.9.1Demo dataForward-tested

Injury News Sprint

Trade NBA and EPL match markets in the minutes after lineup news.

Event-drivenModel expected value

OOS Sharpe 1.4 · illustrative

sharpe-ratio-sam · v0.4.0Demo dataUntested

Cross-Venue NFL

Arbitrage NFL spreads and totals between Polymarket and Betfair.

Cross-venue arbitrage

No out-of-sample run · illustrative

Loreli team ✓ · v0.1.0Untested

Lionel EV Sports

Bet sportsbook prices that are too long versus the no-vig consensus or Lionel's model. Backtested live on a forward ledger.

Model expected valueProbability discrepancy

Live forward ledger · computed on the page

Loreli team ✓ · v1.0.0Backtested

Probability Momentum

Loreli's starter trend rule, runnable in the Lab today.

Metrics computed from real price history

Loreli team ✓ · v1.0.0Backtested

Mean Reversion

Loreli's starter contrarian rule, runnable in the Lab today.

Metrics computed from real price history

How verification works

A strategy cannot be published until Loreli has re-run its backtest and recorded its Sharpe. Verification asks whether the result is reproducible and statistically credible. It never says a strategy will make money, and a high Sharpe on its own is not enough.

Reproduced. The same rules, data and cost assumptions are re-run on Loreli's backtester.
Sample size. At least 30 trades over at least 90 days of history.
Out-of-sample. The last 30% of history is held out. Out-of-sample Sharpe must stay positive and decay by no more than 60%.
Costs included. ROI is net of fees and modelled slippage; fills happen on the bar after the signal.
Status ladder. Backtested · verified, then Paper-traded after 30+ days forward on live prices, then Live-verified once fills are confirmed against venue records.