TrendBacktest only · unverifiedExample strategy by Loreli
Probability Momentum
Prediction markets often absorb news gradually. If a probability has moved decisively over the last few observations, this rule bets that the move continues for a while before fading.
Markets tested
8
Median net return
-1.0%
Profitable markets
0 / 8
Markets with trades
5
Equity · Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Most active market in the sample, $1,000 start, default parameters
$799$862$924$986
6 May19 June3 Aug17 Sept1 Nov
Assumptions
- Buys the chosen outcome only (no shorting).
- Signal sees prices up to the current bar; fills at the next bar.
- Exits when the lookback change turns negative or after the max hold.
- Parameters: lookback (bars) 7, rise to trigger (pts) 5, max hold (bars) 14.
- 25% of equity per trade, 1% fee per fill, 1 pt slippage, daily prices, last 180 days.
- Sample: the 8 highest-volume live Polymarket markets right now — survivorship bias applies.
Per-market results
| Market | Trades | Net return | Max DD | Buy & hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | -21.5% | 21.5% | -18.4% | |
| 0 | +0.0% | 0.0% | -37.8% | |
| 1 | -1.0% | 1.0% | +14.5% | |
| 0 | +0.0% | 0.0% | -29.9% | |
| 2 | -1.4% | 2.9% | -2.2% | |
| 0 | +0.0% | 0.0% | -72.7% | |
| 4 | -10.2% | 12.3% | -86.2% | |
| 5 | -5.1% | 7.5% | +46.5% |
Computed from Polymarket price history when this page was generated (refreshed every 15 minutes). Not live trading results. Not verified by an independent party.